How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?

Тяжелая форма коронавируса

Если COVID-19 протекает тяжело, у человека развивается пневмония. Такой сценарий заболевания более всего вероятен у тех, чей возраст 60 лет и больше, а также есть сопутствующие хронические заболевания сердечно-сосудистой и/или дыхательной системы. Проявления в этом случае следующие:

1. Повышенная частота дыхания, превышающая классический параметр для взрослого (12-18 вдохов за 1 минуту), даже в состоянии покоя.
2. Выраженная затрудненность дыхания.
3. Человек при тяжелой форме не может произнести предложение, не прерывая его, чтобы сделать дополнительные вдохи.
4. Температура тела высокая, превышает +38,5°C, часто достигает показателя +39°С и более.
5. Человек не может успокоить дыхание (оно поверхностное и ускоренное) и делать вдохи-выдохи медленно и размеренно.
6. При тяжелой форме наблюдают апатичность больного, привычные и интересные занятия его не увлекают, он ничего не хочет делать.
7. Аппетит, как и чувство жажды, фактически отсутствует, человек не хочет есть даже любимые блюда – они могут вызывать тошноту.
8. Часто при тяжелом течении коронавирусной инфекции наблюдают понижение артериального давления.

В случае подобной пневмонии способен развиться ТОРС – тяжелый острый респираторный синдром. При нем альвеолы в легких воспалены, в них скапливается жидкость, которая препятствует выполнению ими своей функции. В подобной ситуации требуется искусственная вентиляция легких при помощи специализированного аппарата, так как обычное дыхание невозможно.

Herd immunity is still far away

Street artist Carlos Giovanni, who goes by the name TheyDrift, works on the portrait of a healthcare worker for a piece he calls «Stay Home» on the same day that Governor Jay Inslee extended his stay-home order until May 4 in Seattle, Washington, April 2, 2020.

REUTERS/Jason Redmond

Once lockdowns lift, experts fear a resurgence of new coronavirus cases. To prevent the next wave of COVID-19 patients from overwhelming hospitals again, a group of infectious-disease researchers at Harvard have suggested that on-and-off social distancing could be necessary into 2022.

Eventually — most likely via a vaccine — communities or countries could achieve «herd immunity,» the point at which enough of a population has become immune to a virus to prevent it from spreading and keep its R0 below 1.

But for now, experts agree that we’re not close to a point of herd immunity for this coronavirus.

«That is similar to pandemic flu of 1918, and it implies that the end of this epidemic is going to require nearly 50% of the population to be immune, either from a vaccine, which is not on the immediate horizon, or from natural infection,» Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch told a gathering of experts last month.

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Myth: The coronavirus is less deadly than the flu

Though the death rate for COVID-19 is unclear, almost all credible research suggests it is much higher than that of the seasonal flu, which has a death rate of around 0.1% in the U.S., Live Science previously reported.

Among reported COVID-19 cases in the U.S., about 4% have died, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. This is what’s known as the case fatality rate, which is determined by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of confirmed cases. But the case fatality rate is limited for a few reasons. First, not everyone with COVID-19 is being diagnosed with the disease — this is in part due to testing limitations in the U.S. and the fact that people who experience mild or moderate symptoms may not seek out testing. As the number of confirmed cases goes up, the fatality rate may decrease.

Many studies estimate that around 0.5% to 1% of people infected with COVID-19 will die from the disease, according to . Even a death rate around 1% is still 10 times higher than that of the flu.

It’s also important to note that estimates of flu illnesses and deaths from the CDC are just that — estimates (which make certain assumptions) rather than raw numbers. (The CDC does not know the exact number of people who become sick with or die from the flu each year in the U.S. Rather, this number is estimated based on data collected on flu hospitalizations through surveillance in 13 states.) Researchers emphasized this point in a recent paper published in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine, describing how they found that, in the U.S., there were 20 times more deaths per week from COVID-19 than from the flu in the deadliest week of an average influenza season, Live Science previously reported.

Similarities: COVID-19 and the Flu

Symptoms

• Both illnesses can cause fever, cough, body aches, and sometimes vomiting and diarrhea (especially in children). Learn more about COVID-19 symptoms.
• Both can result in pneumonia.
• Both flu and COVID-19 can be mild or severe, or even fatal in rare cases.

How It Spreads

• Both the flu and COVID-19 spread in similar ways. Droplets or smaller virus particles from a sick person can transmit the virus to other people nearby. The smallest particles may linger in the air, and another person can inhale them and become infected.
• Or, people can touch a surface with viruses on it, and then transfer the germs to themselves by touching their face. 
• People infected with the coronavirus or the flu may not realize they are sick for several days, and during that time can unknowingly spread the disease to others before they even feel sick.

Treatment

• Neither the flu nor COVID-19 is treatable with antibiotics, which only work on bacterial infections.
• Both are treated by addressing symptoms, such as reducing fever. Severe cases may require hospitalization and very ill patients may need a ventilator — a machine that helps them breathe.
• Antiviral medications may shorten the duration of both illnesses.

Is the presence of a fever always the first symptom of a coronavirus infection? Is there any value in taking your temperature every day?

 – Colleen from Knoxville, Tennessee

Symptoms of COVID-19 resemble the flu and include fever, cough and shortness of breath, according to the CDC. Some people also develop aches and pains, nasal congestion, runny nose, sore throat or diarrhea.

While fever is one of the most common symptoms, it’s not productive to take your temperature every day, Poland said.

«That’s like taking your blood pressure four times a day for no particular good reason. I’d probably not do that unless there’s a reason to do it. For example, if you felt feverish, or if you traveled to a high-risk area, or if you had contact with somebody (infected),» he said.

Coronavirus Vaccine

On December 11, 2020, the Food and Drug Administration granted emergency authorization use in the U.S. of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for those 16 years of age and older. Within a week, Moderna was also granted an EAU in the U.S.. Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two doses, administered a few weeks apart.

Priority allocation of the doses has been given to health care workers and the elderly. It is estimated that it will be spring or summer before the general public will have acess to the vaccines. There are still unanswered questions regarding their safety in pregnant women.

Coronavirus Transmission

How does the coronavirus spread?

SARS-CoV-2, the virus, mainly spreads from person to person.

Most of the time, it spreads when a sick person coughs or sneezes. They can spray droplets as far as 6 feet away. If you breathe them in or swallow them, the virus can get into your body. Some people who have the virus don’t have symptoms, but they can still spread the virus.

You can also get the virus from touching a surface or object the virus is on, then touching your mouth, nose, or possibly your eyes. Most viruses can live for several hours on a surface that they land on. A study shows that SARS-CoV-2 can last for several hours on various types of surfaces:

Myth: If you have coronavirus, «you’ll know»

No, you won’t. COVID-19 causes a wide range of symptoms, many of which appear in other respiratory illnesses such as the flu and the common cold. Specifically, common symptoms of COVID-19 include fever, cough, headache, sore throat, muscle or body aches, difficulty breathing, nausea and vomiting. In severe cases, the disease can progress into a serious pneumonia-like illness — but early on, infected people may show no symptoms at all.

And some people never develop symptoms. Exactly how common asymptomatic cases are is still being determined, although the it may be around 40% of cases.

If you have underlying conditions and milder symptoms of the disease, you should seek medical attention at the nearest hospital, experts told Live Science.  

Насколько быстро он распространяется?

Впервые этот новый штамм был выявлен в сентябре.

Уже в ноябре примерно 25% всех заражений в Лондоне были как раз этим вариантом коронавируса. А к середине декабря их стало более 65%.

На примере результатов тестов, сделанных в британской лаборатории Milton Keynes Lighthouse Laboratory, мы видим, как этот штамм стал доминировать в лабораторных анализах.

Математики пытаются рассчитать поведение других штаммов коронавируса, чтобы понять, насколько более агрессивен может быть новый.

Однако тут надо учитывать не только поведение самого вируса, но и то, как будут вести себя люди.

Премьер-министр Борис Джонсон сказал, что новый штамм может быть на 70% заразнее, и именно по этой причине на 0,4 может вырасти индекс репродукции (который показывает, растет ли число заражений или убывает).

Об этих 70% рассказал в минувшую пятницу доктор Эрик Фольц из Имперского колледжа Лондона

Во время выступления он сказал: «Пока еще слишком рано делать выводы… Но из того, что мы уже видим, он распространяется очень быстро, гораздо быстрее, так что важно продолжать наблюдать за ним»

Нет никакой определенной цифры, которая бы с точностью указывала на то, насколько более заразен этот новый штамм.

Ученые, которые еще не обнародовали данные своих исследований, называли как гораздо более высокий процент, так и значительно более низкий, чем 70%.

Фото: unsplash.com

И остается еще вопрос по поводу того, действительно ли он более заразный, чем прежние варианты?

«Тех данных, которые имеются в открытом доступе, совершенно не достаточно для того, чтобы сделать четкий и безусловный вывод о том, что заразность у вируса стала выше», — говорит профессор Джонатан Болл, вирусолог из Ноттингемского университета.

Symptoms

Let’s examine the symptoms of COVID-19 and the flu a little more closely.

COVID-19

The most commonly observed symptoms of COVID-19 are:

• fever
• cough
• fatigue
• shortness of breath

In addition to the symptoms above, some people may experience other symptoms, although these tend to be less common:

• muscle aches and pains
• headache
• runny or stuffy nose
• sore throat
• nausea or diarrhea
• chills
• frequent shaking with chills
• loss of smell
• loss of taste

Some people with COVID-19 won’t experience any symptoms or may only experience very mild symptoms.

The flu

Individuals that have the flu experience some or all of the following symptoms:

• fever
• chills
• cough
• fatigue
• body aches and pains
• headache
• runny or stuffy nose
• sore throat
• nausea or diarrhea

Not everyone with the flu will have a fever. This is particularly true in older adults or those who have a weakened immune system.

Additionally, digestive symptoms like vomiting and diarrhea are more common in children with the flu.

Tens of thousands of Americans die of flu every year

At least 19 million Americans have caught the flu in the last four months; nearly a quarter million of them went to the hospital. Since flu season peaks between December and February, the worst could be still to come.

«Influenza rarely gets this sort of attention, even though it kills more Americans each year than any other virus,» Peter Hotez, a virologist at Baylor College of Medicine, told KHN.

In 2018, which brought the worst flu season in about 40 years, 80,000 people in the US died of the illness.

A patient experiencing flu-like symptoms is examined at Northwestern Memorial Hospital in Chicago, Illinois.

Scott Olson/Getty

The flu is not just a US problem, of course. According to the World Health Organization, seasonal influenza epidemics cause between 3 million and 5 million severe cases worldwide every year and kill up to 650,000 people per year.

Disease course and severity

We’re learning more and more about COVID-19 every day and there are still aspects of this disease that aren’t fully known.

However, we do know that there are certain differences in the disease course and symptom severity of COVID-19 and the flu.

• COVID-19. An estimated 20 percent of confirmed cases of COVID-19 are severe or critical. Some people may experience worsening of respiratory symptoms in the second week of illness, on average after 8 days.
• Flu. An uncomplicated case of the flu typically resolves in about 3 to 7 days. In some people, cough and fatigue may linger for 2 weeks or longer. Just over 1 percent of people with the flu are hospitalized.

Will the coronavirus go away when the weather warms?

Mr. Trump has said repeatedly that the coronavirus will retreat as weather warms, just as influenza does. In fact, because this is a new virus, there is no information about how the weather might affect it.

Even if the virus were to diminish in the spring, it might rebound later in the fall, as the weather cools. This is a pattern often seen in severe flu seasons.

Containment is becoming less likely, because of the contagiousness of the virus, the possibility that people can spread it before they have symptoms and the increasing number of outbreaks around the world.

Cases in California, New York, Oregon and Washington State without known links to overseas travel indicate the new coronavirus has already begun to circulate.

Reporting was contributed by Gina Kolata and Knvul Sheikh.

Pandemics

Seasonal flu, which causes outbreaks every year, should not be confused with pandemic flu, or a global outbreak of a new flu virus that is very different from the strains that typically circulate. This happened in 2009 with the swine flu pandemic, which is estimated to have infected up to 1.4 billion people and killed between 151,000 and 575,000 people worldwide, . There is no flu pandemic happening currently.

On March 11, the WHO officially declared the outbreak of COVID-19 a pandemic. This is the first time the WHO has declared a pandemic for a coronavirus.

Related: When will a COVID-19 vaccine be ready?

Treatment, vaccines, and prevention

The first and most major difference between the flu and novel coronavirus, is how little we know about the latter—which plays into into the absence of treatment and vaccines for COVID-19. «People often compare the flu to COVID-19, but we have a vaccine to prevent and medications to treat the flu. Right now, we have no medications or vaccine for COVID-19,» says Dr. Juthani.

The influenza vaccine, for example, was first licensed for use in civilians in 1945—and now, doctors recommend all people over six months old get the flu shot each year, ideally as early as the end of October. Treatment for the flu is also an option, with antiviral medications like Tamiflu, which can shorten the amount of time you’re sick and prevent flu complications like pneumonia. But, for Tamiflu to work effectively, it needs to be taken with in the first 48 hours of the onset of symptoms—and most flu cases are so mild they may not even need treatment other than rest and symptom management.

Scientists are currently working on a coronavirus vaccine. But as Jeremy Brown, MD, director of the Office of Emergency Care Research at the National Institutes of Health and author of Influenza: The Hundred-Year Hunt to Cure the Deadliest Disease in History, previously told Health, the entire vaccine process—from early development through human testing—can take a lot of time and cost a lot of money. Fortunately, in working on a vaccine for the current coronavirus, researchers may discover clues that may help treat or even prevent future outbreaks.

At this point, the best options for keeping yourself infection-free is following the CDC’s recommendations for all respiratory illnesses. That includes washing your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds; not touching your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands; maintaining social distancing; avoiding close contact with people who are sick; staying home when you are sick; wearing a cloth mask, and disinfecting frequently touched objects and surfaces.

RELATED: A Coronavirus ‘Super-Spreader’ May Have Infected At Least 11 People With the Virus—Here’s How That Happens

«Эпидемиология остаётся неясной»

Как сообщил в беседе с RT академик РАН, президент Национального медицинского исследовательского центра детской гематологии, онкологии и иммунологии имени Дмитрия Рогачёва Александр Румянцев, пока неизвестно, какова клиническая картина новой версии вируса. Поэтому непонятно, сможет ли мутировавший коронавирус вызвать новое заболевание у перенёсших болезнь или у вакцинированных.

«Эпидемиология этого вируса остаётся неясной. То есть биологические позиции только изучаются во всём мире. Неизвестно, будет ли разновидность этого вируса иметь собственную картину заболевания и будет ли она пересекаться с тем вирусом, который сейчас присутствует у нас», — заявил Румянцев.

По мнению врача-эпидемиолога, первого заместителя председателя комитета по образованию и науке Государственной думы Геннадия Онищенко, коронавирус за прошедший год — с самого начала эпидемии — произвёл уже сотни мутаций.

• Клиническая картина заболевания новой разновидностью вируса пока не определена
• Reuters

«Ещё в самом начале, когда коронавирус развивался в Ухани, произошла первая мутация. Штамм остался тем же самым, однако произошла его мутация в сторону повышенной контагиозности, он стал больше заражать. За прошедший год было несколько сотен других мутаций. Научных данных о том, что вирус научился обходить действующие вакцины, на сегодня нет. Границы с Великобританией закрыли, и это оправданно: надо как следует разобраться. А главная задача сейчас — вакцинировать население как можно быстрее, чтобы остановить эпидемию и сократить число возможных мутаций», — заявил в беседе с RT Онищенко. 

Похожего мнения придерживается и заведующий отделом вирусологии им. А.А. Смородинцева Института экспериментальной медицины, профессор и эксперт ВОЗ Лариса Руденко. В беседе с RT она отметила, что в настоящее время известно лишь о повышенной скорости инфицирования новым типом вируса.

How many coronavirus cases are in the UK?

There are now 40 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK, and a total of 13,525 tests have been carried out, according to the latest figures from the Department of Health. 

Read More: Coronavirus UK: Authorities search for those who came into contact with first cases

Two of the confirmed cases were from the south Devon area and had become infected while on holiday in northern Italy. Another individual tested positive for coronavirus in Kent after returning from Italy.

Dr James Mapstone, the acting regional director of Public Health England, South of England said: “Close contacts will be given health advice about symptoms and emergency contact details to use if they become unwell in the 14 days after contact with the confirmed case. This tried and tested method will ensure we are able to minimise any risk to them and the wider public.”

The bigger the lie

It may have been Joseph Goebbels who said: ‘’If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.’’ It seems this is an evergreen statement; not only is there no limit to the size of the lie, there seems to be no limit on the number of lies either.

Hypotheses make predictions, and if they are consistently proven right, eventually they become theory. Einstein is heralded because he made predictions about black holes that are only being proven true almost a century later. Many fine minds have put their necks out to make predictions about the nature of this outbreak, despite slime and slander from the cheerleaders of the elite. But when they are vindicated, the cheerleaders just drown them out.

In contrast, Neil Ferguson is rolled out again and the second wavers just keep saying ‘wait another two weeks’. When will this end? Never. Not until we have a complete rethink. Logic and reason have not worked. It’s time for a new approach.

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Что мы знаем о мутациях британского штамма?

В опубликованной первоначальной расшифровке анализа нового штамма говорится о потенциально важных изменениях 17 характеристик.

Изменения касаются шиповидного белка — своего рода ключа, которым вирус отмыкает дверцу в клетки.

Одна из мутаций, N501Y, ответственна за самую важную часть этого шипа, известную как рецептор-связывающий домен (RBD).

Именно здесь шип впервые входит в контакт с поверхностью клетки. Любые изменения, которые помогут вирусу проникать внутрь, вероятнее всего, дадут этому штамму преимущество.

«По всем параметрам похоже, что это важная адаптация», — отмечает профессор Ломан.

Неоднократно фиксировалась и еще одна мутация (делеция H69/V70), в частности у зараженных норок на фермах в Дании, в ходе которой происходит уничтожение крошечной части шипа.

Исследования, проводимые профессором Рави Гуптой из Кембриджского университета, показывают, что в лабораторных условиях эта мутация увеличивает в два раза инфекционность коронавируса.

В ходе этих же экспериментов ученые предположили, что эти мутации делают менее эффективными лечение больных с помощью переливания крови пациентов, переболевших ковидом.

Фото: unsplash.com

«Случаи все растут и растут, и это беспокоит правительство, беспокоит нас, беспокоит всех ученых», — сказал профессор Гупта в интервью Би-би-си.

Treatment

As flu has been around much longer than COVID-19, there are more treatment options.

Most people with the flu do not require medical treatment. But a doctor might prescribe antiviral drugs in some cases, which can reduce the symptoms by 1–2 days.

These antiviral drugs help the body fight the virus. They treat symptoms and reduce how long the illness lasts.

There are currently no antiviral drugs approved to treat COVID-19, although scientists are currently researching drugs in trials. When scientists have had more time to study the disease, the availability of antivirals to treat COVID-19 will likely increase.

Although there is currently no approved treatment or vaccination for COVID-19, there are ways to help treat the symptoms and any complications that can occur.

For mild cases, a person should remain home and undertake social distancing. Healthcare professionals may prescribe antipyretics to reduce the fever.

For more severe cases, a person may require supplemental oxygen or mechanical ventilation on a breathing machine to treat the respiratory problems that may occur.

What Is COVID-19?

A coronavirus is a kind of common virus that causes an infection in your nose, sinuses, or upper throat. Most coronaviruses aren’t dangerous.

In early 2020, after a December 2019 outbreak in China, the World Health Organization identified SARS-CoV-2 as a new type of coronavirus. The outbreak quickly spread around the world.

COVID-19 is a disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 that can trigger what doctors call a respiratory tract infection. It can affect your upper respiratory tract (sinuses, nose, and throat) or lower respiratory tract (windpipe and lungs).

It spreads the same way other coronaviruses do, mainly through person-to-person contact. Infections range from mild to deadly.

SARS-CoV-2 is one of seven types of coronavirus, including the ones that cause severe diseases like Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and sudden acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The other coronaviruses cause most of the colds that affect us during the year but aren’t a serious threat for otherwise healthy people.

Is there more than one strain of SARS-CoV-2?

It’s normal for a virus to change, or mutate, as it infects people. A Chinese study of 103 COVID-19 cases suggests the virus that causes it has done just that. They found two strains, which they named L and S. The S type is older, but the L type was more common in early stages of the outbreak. They think one may cause more cases of the disease than the other, but they’re still working on what it all means.

How long will the coronavirus last?

Cases can be life threatening

Mild cases of COVID-19 are thought to last approximately 2 weeks, said Cutler.

“Fortunately, the vast majority of cases are mild,” he said.

Almost nobody dies of the common cold. And most seasonal allergies are more annoying than dangerous.

Influenza, however, causes between 12,000 and 61,000 deaths per year in the United States.

COVID-19 has the potential to cause even more fatalities because it’s easily transmitted, the population lacks any immunity to the disease, and complications in serious cases may include life threatening pneumonia.

If you’re feeling sick or you think you have been exposed to COVID-19, you should self-quarantine for at least 2 weeks to prevent further spread of the disease, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Severe symptoms of COVID-19 that require immediate medical attention include difficulty breathing, persistent pain or pressure in the chest, confusion or inability to arouse, or bluish lips or face, the latter indicating a shortage of oxygen in the bloodstream, according to the CDC.

“Around one out of every six people who gets COVID-19 becomes seriously ill and develops difficulty breathing,” the WHO said. “Older people and those with underlying medical problems like high blood pressure, heart problems, or diabetes, are more likely to develop serious illness.”

What measures has China taken?

 The central province of Hubei, where the coronavirus outbreak started and nearly all deaths have occurred, has been placed in lockdown.

Around 60m people are isolated to the area with numerous transport restrictions in place. People are being told to work from home.

The outbreak has had a severe effect on the country’s markets. In their first day of trading since the Lunar New Year, China’s markets suffered their worst opening since 2007’s financial crisis.

Read More: Chinese stocks plunge as coronavirus fears rattle markets

The fall came despite Beijing pumping £16bn into its economy and cutting a key-short term interest rate in a bid to boost liquidity and stabilise markets.

Severity and mortality

The symptoms of COVID-19 and flu can range from mild to severe. Both can also cause pneumonia.

It is important to note that the World Health Organization (WHO) have classified mild symptoms of COVID-19 to mean that a person will not require hospitalization. The WHO classify mild cases to consist of symptoms including:

• fever
• cough
• fatigue
• loss of appetite
• sore throat
• headache

The CDC also lists the following as potential symptoms:

• breathlessness
• muscle pain
• chills
• new loss of taste or smell

According to the WHO, around 15% of COVID-19 cases are severe, and 5% are critical. Those in a critical state require a ventilator to breathe. The chance of severe and critical infection is higher with COVID-19 than the flu.

COVID-19 is also more deadly. According to the WHO, the mortality rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu.

Compared with the flu, research on COVID-19 is still in its early stages. These estimates may change over time.

The bottom line

COVID-19 and the flu are both respiratory illnesses. While there’s a lot of overlap between them, there are also key differences to look out for.

Many common symptoms of the flu aren’t common in cases of COVID-19. Flu symptoms also develop suddenly while COVID-19 symptoms develop gradually. Additionally, the incubation period for the flu is shorter.

COVID-19 also appears to cause more severe illness compared to the flu, with a larger percentage of people requiring hospitalization. The virus that causes COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, also seems to transmit more readily in the population.

If you think that you have COVID-19, isolate yourself at home away from other people. Let your doctor know so that they can work to arrange testing. Be sure to keep careful track of your symptoms and seek prompt medical care if they begin to worsen.

On April 21, the FDA approved the use of the first COVID-19 home testing kit. Using the cotton swab provided, people will be able to collect a nasal sample and mail it to a designated laboratory for testing.

The emergency use authorization specifies that the test kit is authorized for use by people who healthcare professionals have identified as having suspected COVID-19.

Myth 3: Contact tracing is the answer

Early in the outbreak, there seemed to be a connection between those countries with impressive track and trace capabilities, like Germany and South Korea, and their ability to cope. Of course, the tracking and tracing itself could not have been ‘curing’ the population of Covid. No one knew why there seemed to be a positive effect from comprehensive testing. Months later, still no one knows.

But that has not stopped western governments from pathetic attempts to emulate the conformist East Asian societies with contact tracing apps and programmes. Despite a not inconsiderable propaganda campaign, they have all failed miserably. This is largely because not enough people even have any symptoms anymore, months after the virus peaked.

Trying to ramp up contact tracing in August goes beyond locking the barn door after the horse has bolted. This horse bolted so long ago that now herds of its descendants roam the countryside. Meanwhile, the farmer ruins his homestead in order to pour his resources into increasingly elaborate and expensive door locking contraptions.

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Which virus is deadlier?

The coronavirus seems to be more deadly than the flu — so far.

On average, seasonal flu strains kill about 0.1 percent of people who become infected. The 1918 flu had an unusually high fatality rate, around 2 percent. Because it was so contagious, that flu killed tens of millions of people.

Early estimates of the coronavirus death rate from China were about 2 percent. But a later report on 1,099 cases from many parts of China, published in The New England Journal of Medicine, found a lower rate: 1.4 percent.

In a recent speech, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, asserted that the global case fatality rate for people infected with coronavirus was 3.4 percent, a startling figure.

Death rate

The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to news reports.

Though the death rate for COVID-19 is unclear, almost all credible research suggests it is much higher than that of the seasonal flu.

It’s important to note that there is no one death rate for COVID-19; the rate can vary by location, age of person infected and the presence of underlying health conditions, Live Science previously reported.

Among reported COVID-19 cases in the U.S., nearly 6% have died. This is what’s known as the case fatality rate, which is determined by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of confirmed cases. But the case fatality rate is limited for a few reasons. First, not everyone with COVID-19 is being diagnosed with the disease — this is in part due to testing limitations in the U.S. and the fact that people who experience mild or moderate symptoms may not be eligible for or seek out testing. As the number of confirmed cases goes up, the fatality rate may decrease.

Researchers from Columbia University recently estimated that only 1 in 12 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. are documented, which they said would translate to an infection fatality rate of about 0.6%, according to . But even this lower estimate is still at least six times higher than that of the flu. (The case fatality rate in people who become sick with flu may be 0.1%, but when you account for people who become infected with flu but never show symptoms, the death rate will be half or even a quarter of that, the Post reported.)  

What’s more, unlike the flu, for which there is a vaccine, everyone in the population is theoretically susceptible to COVID-19. So while the flu affects 8% of the U.S. population every year, , between 50% and 80% of the population could be infected with COVID-19, according to a study published March 30 in the journal . In the  U.S., that would translate to 1 million deaths from COVID-19 if half the population becomes infected and there are no social distancing measures or therapeutics, the Post reported.

Another limitation with the case fatality rate is that some people who are counted as confirmed cases may eventually die from the disease, which would lead to an increase in the death rate. For example, South Korea initially reported a case fatality rate of 0.6% in early March, but it later rose to 1.7% by the beginning of April, according to .

Related: Why are more men dying from COVID-19?

It’s also important to note that estimates of flu illnesses and deaths from the CDC are just that — estimates (which make certain assumptions) rather than raw numbers. (The CDC does not know the exact number of people who become sick with or die from the flu each year in the U.S. Rather, this number is estimated based on data collected on flu hospitalizations through surveillance in 13 states.) A recent paper published in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine emphasized this point when it found that, in the U.S., there were 20 times more deaths per week from COVID-19 than from the flu in the deadliest week of an average influenza season, Live Science previously reported.